NPC Populations and Level Distribution

[David]

[glow=red,2,300]I MADE A MINOR MATH MISTAKE AND AS A RESULT EDITED THIS POST.[/glow]
Recently, we were talking about just how big the population of Oerth was, what the prevelance of powerful NPCs was, and the frequency of leveled individuals. Because I like to be as transparent as possible and because I think these would be good "world-definition" facts for everyone to grok, here are all the details and sources for the info. Check it out -- I'd love to talk about and logic out the results.

Per the Greyhawk Gazateers, the total human population of the Flanese (the Greyhawk Continent) is 12 million people (just add up all the populations). You can add to this about a million elves, dwarves, gnomes, and hobbits (all combined), plus many million goblins, orcs, gnolls, bugbear, etc.

Now, focusing on humans, I use the following rule-of-thumb for level distibution:

• One person in two HAS a class
  
  
• One person in five is 1/2 level in their class
  
  
• One person in twenty is 1st level in their class
  
  
• One person in fifty is 2nd level in their class
  
  
• From 2nd level, half that number (rnd down) are 3rd, half 3rd are 4th, etc

This would yield a population where:

• 50% are simple, unskilled farmers (work at McDonalds)
  
  
• 20% have some craft-skill such a carpentry or sailor (work in construction)
  
  
• 5% are quite skilled in one field such as commerce or smithing (white-collar work)
  
  
• 2% are very skilled in a given field (doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc)
  
  
• with all truly exceptional individuals falling into a single 1%

If you turn back the clocks in the real world just 100 years, I think we would be lucky to share these statistics... Moreover, this is at least as generous as the distribution given in the Greyhawk books where only 10% of a population is "worthy" of being men-at-arms (not quite first level fighters -- or what we'd now call half-level fighters).

As for the distribution of the various classes, I use this model for the GENERAL population (we've already discussed, for instance, that Furyondy has more clerics and fewer thieves, so obviously there are regional differences):

• 50% Fighters -- 40% of 1st lvl or higher*
  
• 20% Thieves -- 30% of 1st lvl or higher*
  
• 20% Clerics
  
• 10% Mages

*The 1st lvl or higher change is because Fighters who aren't 1st lvl require little training but are fairly functional while Thieves in that category are largely useless. Once 1st lvl is achieved, Thieves, however, would be disproportionaly successful and also would advance much quicker with far less risk of death.

Overlaying this information on the previous level distribution data, we get 25% of the population suitable for a militia, 10% of the total human population being men-at-arms, but only 1.25% are first level fighters (or better). And that looks like about the ratio of peasant-to-knight we had during the Middle Ages, so I'm satisfied.

Moving on to clerics, a community of 100 would on average have one priest capable of reliably granting 1st lvl spells. Thus you have roughly one putz-cleric who can heal owies per village. So that works too. But clerics sufficiently potent to raise the dead would be quite rare (800 on the whole continent, ASSUMING they had the right sphere from their god, which is less than 20% or ~160). That translates to about three or four for every major (5,000+ population) city and a like number in the country (monastic retreats) -- or more likely, two or three per major city, plus the same number in the country plus lots of druids out in the wilderness. Oh yeah, that number does include druids too, who wouldn't be in a city and make up about 30% of the clerical numbers, so that works too.

Speaking of druids, this system gives 15 Druids (12th lvl) for a region the size of the Flanese. Given that there are two circles (hey, it's a HUGE continent and geologically pretty seperated), that works fairly well too (there should be a maximum of 18 Druids, 9 per circle).

As for paladins, well, given the stat requirements for the class, level ditribution, etc, among NPCs they probably top out at 12th or 13th lvl (that means Exvyn is IT at 14th for the Flanese). Heck, there should only be just over 3000 on the whole continent (I guess that means Jyolli and Phillipe's jobs are cut out for them). Given that only just over 1% have the personality to be a paladin, of those 1/2 the strength, of those 1/2 the intelligence, of those about 1/4 the wisdom, well, having a alignment and calling notwithstanding, you only have about 5 paladin candidate per 1000 (adding those other factors in you're at less than 1 per 1000).

Next we have mages. While 5% of the general population can manage a cantrip or two somewhat reliably (basically minor parlor tricks), only one in 200 can manage a first level spell like sleep or identify if they even understand and have a copy of it. We're talking rarer than doctors or lawyers in our world, so 100gp for a first level spell makes some sense. Moreover, they would not be very common in rural enviroments, both due to lack of population and because it is a profession that requires SERIOUS training and academic resources (like college or a very long apprenticeship with a master who has lots of resources -- I think Ursula K LeGuinn's Earthsea model works well here, where mages trained in the boonies lack the depth of understanding because they're cut off from the latest research or even peers to discuss their theories -- a nice analogy with medieval scientists and researchers!). Now, moving up the magical food-chain, just over 6000 mages on the whole continent can manage a fireball with any fizz while only about 6 per kingdom can teleport and only 50 on the whole continent can make magical items IF they know enchant an item. In contrast, 32 times as many can make potions (plus all the alchemist and witches) and well over a thousand can pen scrolls (again, joined by all other sub-classes and clerics).

Finally, there are sub-classes. Honestly, tough specialist are rare. Notice how uncommon tough paladins are -- not only do you need exceptional native talent, a powerful drive, a very specific ethical outlook, you also need to find someone to train you! Druids are the most common sub-class (per DMG 30% of clerics) while illusionists are the most common arcane sub-class (per DMG 10% of mages, although I would posit there are also 10% alchemists and witches). All together, I think it would be fair to have only 2/3s of all clerics or mages are true members of that class -- the rest of some sub-class. Figure maybe 15% of all thieves are really assassins with a like number of bards and 5% of fighters are rangers. Really weird stuff like monks, warsmiths, werelords, and transmuters share less than half of 1 common percent. The attribute requirements alone for some of the more esoteric classes make them nearly unheard of (for instance, in the Werelord article, I mention that statistically only 6 or so individuals on the continent should have the attribute requirements to be a werefox). Heck, I'd argue there are only a couple dozen psionists on the whole planet (they're only found in two cultures -- Oerdian and Hindu -- and in neither place are they "above ground" or even understood).

And, I believe you'll find the statics I'm using for each of these cases more "liberal" than any of the official books. There is a line in one of the Greyhawk Gazateers that other than national rulers, individuals of greater power than 10th should be quite rare -- hey, I'll give you as many as 2000 individuals 10th to 19th lvl among the entire population (~.016% and yet no one 20th)!

See, now don't you think (as I wrote many years ago on my website) that your 4th lvl character is special?

[David]

As a minor note, these numbers do NOT reflect the effects of Horsemouth upon the population. Worldwide, ~15% of humanity died off as a result of this disease, the famine that followed the Apocalypse, and the various natural disasters and sentient-led wars. Generally, the higher level a body, the more likely they were to resist these various negative events.

In addition, the population of Oerth will NOT rebound as quickly as expected. The reasons is that among humans, there is nearly a ONE YEAR gap in births. Allow me to explain why (I couldn't recall all the facts at the game):

First, once the Apocalypse started, no new infants of any species were born (hence why most insect life nearly died off and it took gods like Bralm and Apshai to save many species). This means for the three months of the Apocalypse, any female of any species coming to turn would not give birth to living offspring. Instant three month gap, with the additional problem that many mothers died too.

Second, creatures that lactate found themselves suddenly unable to do so during the Apocalypse. Although this process took more than a week, during the three months of the Apocalypse, all mammalian life effectively "dried up". Since human infants in a pre-modern society cannot survive without breastmilk for AT LEAST six months, most children under one year old died (although there WERE some exceptions in Neregan...long story!).

Finally, no creatures could become pregnant during the Apocalypse. This includes humans. So post-Apocalypse, there will be lag before more infants are born. Bascially, some children (those already conceived, but who didn't die invitro due to the famine or other stressors on the mother) will be born for about six months, then a pause for at least three months, then birthing returns to normal. But at least nine months worth of infants all died off (anyone under six months or within a trimester of birth in mid-March).

And, yes, there are a few spells that would have helped mother and/or child. Most of them are not known in the West (although a number of mother-saving medical practices are). I do realize that wealthier, Nereganti families will have effectively no interruption in birthing. The same is true for some other cultures as well as some druidic communities. These, however, are the exception, not the rule.